Monday, October 2

The monsoon trough is heading north, keeping the hills alert.

A break in the monsoon is expected to occur in much of India from mid-October, but the Himachal and Uttarakhand hill states, which have been hit by rains in August and earlier in July, could be ready for another wet season. People may walk alongside a highway expansion site where heavy rain has caused disruptions and blocked part of the existing road in Dharamshala.

The India Meteorological Department announced on Monday that the monsoon trough is likely to move northward and out of its normal location for the next two to three days, which experts believe could be caused by the El Nino phenomenon.

Northeast states experience a rainfall deficit and temperature increase in response to climate crisis.

A second wave of weak “break monsoon” is expected to occur as the monday trough moved northward and was located north of its usual location for August 7–August 18 (11 days).

The initial dry spell has already affected the overall numbers, with monsoon rainfall being 7% below average and 5% overdue by July.

The monsoon trough is shifting northward, resulting in less rainfall in the plains, particularly in northwest and peninsular India. Additionally, heavy rainfall can be expected in some areas of the Himalayan foothills (such as in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, north Bihar), and parts of northeast India; however, M Mohapatra, director general, IMD, noted that there are no immediate predictions on when the crest will shift because of variable conditions.

The hill states are keeping a watchful eye on the possibility of another heavy rain.

The SDRF in Uttarakhand has maintained a standby force of 560 personnel with advanced equipment, including rafts, deep diving gear, and drones.

He stated that our response time is minimal to minimize the risk of human deaths and damage to constructions. Our teams are deployed in flood-prone and landslide-addicted areas to provide rescue and relief services as quickly as possible.

The Himachal state disaster management authority’s director, DC Rana, declared that the government was ready to handle any situation, and that departments and officials have been put on alert. Rescue teams are being sent to evacuate flood and landslide areas, while roads restoration crews has been stationed in case of road blockades.

HT reported on August 15 that the monsoon trough’s movement northward and its interaction with a weak western disturbance caused heavy rainfall in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, leading to the deaths of at least 105 people due to landslides, building collapses, and damage to roads and infrastructure.

The monsoon trough, as described by IMD, is a semi-permanent feature of monday circulation that extends from the heat low over Pakistan to the Bay of Bengal region (encompassing parts of Odisha, West Bengal, and Bangladesh) in an elongated low-pressure area.

According to another expert, the dry spell could start as early as Tuesday and extend until the end of the month for most of this country.

Ongoing conditions will be similar to a break from the typical monsoon, and there is no indication of any weather systems that can bring the monson trough back to its normal position for the next 10 days. If these systems are not formed, the Monsik tributary will shift northward and we expect heavy rain, landslides, or mudslide conditions in Uttarakhand again on August 23, 24, 25, and 26, according to Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, climate

He stated that El Nino is having a bearing on the weather.

M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences, stated that the impact of El Nino on the atmosphere is evident. The high sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific cause significant clouding and convection, which also causes a failure of the Indian summer monsoon.

He stated that the Indian monsoon trough is placed in the north for an extended period, possibly due to a sinking motion or suppressed atmospheric conditions over central India, and occasionally by western disturbance. However, the long breaks are caused by atmospheric dynamics associated with El Nio, which affects the monsee during its influence.

India is heavily impacted by the southwest monsoon due to El Nino. This season, which is characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, has strong associations with warmer summers and weaker monday rainfall.

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